Sorry, this is a really long post; I didn’t intend it that way; I sometimes lose control of my fingers when I’m a little ticked.
If you already know the GOP candidates, you can skip Part 1, and go directly to Part 2 (black font).
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Part 1 Background
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California has a primary election on June 8th. This is an interesting election year for California because we have a chance to replace Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and elect a Republican Governor. At present, and for the next several months we can expect have an endless parade of political ads, and news, and dirt. Most of us can hardly wait until it is over. (It has gotten so dirty that I actually have to clean my screen several times a day.)
One of the more contentious primary races is deciding which Republican candidate will run against Barbara Boxer in the November general election. It is an important election. It will be a tough election for whomever wins the primary, and runs against Boxer. Boxer has the advantage of incumbency (which may be a disadvantage this year), and a huge war chest, and a reputation for scummy tricks. (One only needs to review her 1992 campaign to see what she is capable of.)
There are three Republicans vying against each other in the June 8th primary: Chuck Devore, Tom Campbell, and Carly Fiorina. Without going into a great deal of detail about each of them, the differences between the three are fairly easy to distinguish, and well publicized.
Chuck Devore is a California State Assemblyman. He has an impressive record of public service, and also has 24 years of service in the military reserve, and retired as a lieutenant Colonel. He is a grassroots candidate, and has been embraced by tea party enthusiast. He is solidly on the right, but not the far/fringe right; I don’t believe anyone would challenge his conservative credentials, (which can actually work against a him in liberal California, in normal times, that is). (A short bio can be found at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_DeVore)
Tom Campbell has an impressive resume with many years of public service; he is a former State congressman, and served 5 nonconsecutive terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. While he claims to be a Republican, he departs from some traditional conservative values as I note, below. He is generally considered the moderate, or liberal candidate, depending on your frame of reference. I don’t think he would deny that, and, in California, that can be a strength. He ran for the Senate in 1992 as a Libertarian. ( Bio: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Campbell_%28California_politician%29)
Carly Fiorina has an impressive resume, also, however, hers is in the business world, not public service. Among other business accolades, she was the CEO of Hewlett-Packard (HP). She works hard to be perceived as a died in the wool conservative, but, her conservative credentials are weak because she doesn’t have a public service record to stand on, and business experience doesn’t translate to political credentials. She readily admits that she has a weak voting record, and apologizes for that, but, it makes her look like she wasn’t really interested in politics until she was out of job.
Because Devore is considered the true conservative, Fiorina and Campbell are often lumped into the “less than a true conservative category”.
My opinion is that she is probably somewhere in between Devore, and Campbell. If she were a “true” conservative, like Devore, there would be no doubt, and the world would already know. Since she was member of John McCain’s campaign, perhaps she is best seen as a “McCain conservative”. I’m not saying that in a pejorative way; I’m just trying to give my perspective. (Bio: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carly_Fiorina)
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Chuck Devore, and Tom Campbell are financing their campaigns the old fashioned way: donations from supporters, while Fiorina, who is wealthy because of her business success, is basically self-financing, and, I’m sure, she also receives donations.
Because we are in the final stretch of the campaign, and the time is getting short, and the poll numbers are becoming more critical, some political GURU’s have been advising/begging Devore to drop out of the race, “for the good of the Republican Party”.
(Two of the articles, and the end of this blog, declare that Chuck Devore should be the big guy, and drop out of the June primary election, while a third gives reasons why he should not drop-out. Links to the articles are provided, below. They are all excellent articles. )
Just to summarize the argument that Devore should drop out of the campaign, in twenty-five words, or less:
Their argument is that Devore does not have the numbers to win, and if he stays in the race, he will be a spoiler who will take votes away from Fiorina, who is currently in the second slot, and therefore, will thrust Campbell into the winning slot.
Judging from her support, it is clear that the majority of the Republican establishment, i.e., the status quo, feels that Fiorina has a better chance of defeating Barbara Boxer in the November election.
I don’t like polls, in general, because they can be made to provide any desired result, however, I need to quote one poll that is often quoted, and is supposedly from an unbiased source, the Public Policy Institute of California, PPIC. (Link: http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp)
The most recent numbers are: (I believe these are name recognition numbers)
Carly Fiorina: 25%
Tom Campbell: 23%
Chuck DeVore: 16%
With a margin of error of 5%, which is fairly wide, all three slots are solidly in play; any last minute reversals could spell doom to any of the candidates.
The “Establishment” belief is that if Devore drops out, most of his 16% will go to the more conservative, or less moderate, Fiorina, and she will beat Campbell, and that is not an unreasonable belief.
However, it is too soon to count Devore out. In the last PPIC poll, his numbers were at 8%, so he has doubled his numbers, and Fiorina, and Campbell are practically unchanged. (March 20th poll: Fiorina — 24%, Campbell — 23%, DeVore – 8%). Also, Fiorina’s current numbers are after some significant endorsements that should have caused a jump, but which only served to keep her at the same numbers, so her numbers must have dipped.
Anyway, enough for the numbers. Polls don’t tell the whole story, and they don’t reflect the Anger Index that is so hard to gauge.
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Part 2 The Meat
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I am a Devore supporter. I liked him from the beginning, even before he had any official competition.
I am also old, and not dumb; I know that in politics, it is very seldom that the best person prevails. The best person only wins when he/she have a message that resonates with a large number of voters, and, they need lots of money. Ideally, the money should come from individual supporters, which shows true support, and not from large special interests, or from wealthy individuals, even themselves. Campaign money implies support, and if the candidate is dumping their own money into their campaign, the “real” support numbers are skewed.
Chuck Devore has the message, but he doesn’t have the wealth, nor large money support. Big money establishment Republicans would rather support a candidate like Fiorina, who is acceptable to themselves, and who has her own money to spend, than support a simple, and honest, and “poor” guy, like Chuck Devore, or Tom Campbell.
This is “business as usual” pragmatism, and I think it is a mistake; the status quo, and being part of the establishment, is not a protection in this election.
I think too many Republican/conservative Guru’s are assuming that all the disaffected, angry conservatives will vote the conservative party line, no matter what. They are betting that disdain for Boxer, will outweigh disdain for Fiorina, and for the incumbent establishment Republicans.
Good luck with that. They don’t seem to realize that the anger is not just about Republican/conservative vs Democrat/liberal, it is anger at the status quo, and a conservative/liberal Establishment that has failed us all, and which has ruined our country and put is on the road to a bleak future. Republicans are making a big mistake if they believe they can expect the same old the support from the “party faithful”.
I am a life-long Republican, and a conservative, and I definitely do not identify with the Republican party that I’ve seen in the last few years, and the party that I see now. The Republican Party of today hasn’t just “lost it’s way”, it’s lost it’s values.
Myself, I am really ticked at what I am seeing, and I am even embarrassed at what the Party has become; it is shameful, and directionless, and clueless. Until I saw how the establishment Republicans have treated a guy like Chuck Devore, in favor of a nobody like Fiorina, I thought that maybe the Republican party could redeem itself, and rebuild itself, if only they could gain more power in Congress.
But, now, I think that is poppycock. The establishment Republicans only want to maintain their status quo; they don’t want new blood, and new ideas, or to “redeem” themselves; they just want the same old thing. They are afraid of someone like Devore, because he is the kind of guy that will challenge their values, and ideas, and, essentially, keep them honest. To them, he is a threat to their cloistered world; he would be a rabble–rouser. If Fiorina prevails, and if she beats Boxer, then nothing will change; the status quo is backing her, and the status quo will win.
If you are happy with our current Republican establishment, and the current state of affairs, then I guess you should vote for Fiorina.
How arrogant are these establishment Republicans. They are responsible for our financial meltdown. It happened on their watch; if they were doing their jobs, and minding the store the way they should have been, we wouldn’t be in this colossal mess. They failed us, and now they want us to “make nice”, and support the party, and support them? That is baloney; they haven’t shown me anything, and they don’t deserve my support.
All I’ve heard them do is play the blame game: the Democrats are responsible; the liberal philosophy is at fault; it was their fault because they were the majority in the Congress, it was darn liberal policies, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah. It’s all BS; so much for the party that preaches personal responsibility. As unseemly as it is for Obama to continuously blame Bush for all our woes, the Republicans only pay lip-service to their role in the debacle, and they blame the Democrats.
(A don’t even get me started on Health Care Reform, another area where they failed us, big time.)
So, I have zero faith in the Republican establishment, as they are now constituted; they, as a collective, suck. If this election is any indication of the future, then we are in for the same old crap from Republicans, and Democrats.
No one would even know who Fiorina is if it weren’t for her ability to purchase her name recognition. She admits that she is not even civic minded enough to even bother to vote, and her main claim to fame is being CEO of HP. So what ? Why is that a big deal ? Does she really believe that being a CEO somehow qualifies her to be a Senator ? It sure didn’t make her a good person, judging from her campaign tactics; she is actually using clips from Chuck Devore endorsements to make it look as if they endorsed her, and she has claimed endorsements that have publicly denounced her tactis. And she even had the nerve to belittle Devore’s military service. How desperate, and scummy, is that ? Doesn’t she have any shame?
I guess she believes that money can buy anything, even an election.
I hate to say anything good about Barbara Boxer, but at least she earned her political reputation, through many years of public service, and voters knew who she was when she was elected Senator. Fiorina has only “done” for herself. What has she done for her country ? What has she done for her State ? How about for her district ? She can’t even sacrifice a half hour to vote, and now she thinks she can fill Boxer’s boots ?
Fiorina is a nobody to the average guy like me. And it is obvious that her conservative credentials are weak, and they are more about “political correctness”, than true conviction; she doesn’t need to please the voters, she only needs to write the checks, and make-nice with establishment Republicans. And I see a pragmatic Republican establishment that wants Fiorina to win at any cost; values, and character do not matter; “mediocrity”, and “acceptability”, and, above all, “dollars”, is all that matters. She is buying an election, and only the little people care.
Palin’s endorsement of Fiorina is a perfect example of how desperate the Republican establishment is to maintain the status quo. Palin was a darling of the tea party movement that embraced her seemingly strong “rogue” ideals, and values, etc, and she seemed to reciprocate. It looked like a marriage. And, while Devore is not as well-known, and flamboyant as Palin, the two could easily be seen as kindred spirits who embraced like-minded ideals. Yet, she clearly betrayed the tea party beliefs in favor of establishment pragmatism.
Palins endorsement/betrayal is typical of the establishment Republicans. They think the electorate is stupid. Do the really believe that they can betray these folks, and all their fellow sympathizers, and not suffer any consequences ?
These are angry folks; we’re talking about real anger; not some sort of fleeting dissatisfaction, or unhappiness. We’re talking about folks who have done everything right; according to the rules: they obey the laws; they work, they pay taxes, they raise families, they go to church, they pray, and they feed the poor, and they send their kids to college, and buy houses, and invest in the country, and IRA’s, and they love their country, and they don’t ask for a nickels worth of government charity, or welfare, etc, etc, and now, because a bunch of Republicans “lost their way”, and Democrats “had their way”, our future, and the future of our kids, and grandkids, is in great jeopardy.
Grrrrrr……………
It’s easy to support Chuck Devore because he is an unabashed conservative, and his beliefs speak for themselves. I know that if he wins the primary, and then wins the general election, he can be trusted to do a good job based on sound principles. I won’t have to hold my nose when I vote for him.
If the Republican establishment had any guts, they’d support Devore, and put their beliefs, and ideas, on the line, and sell them to voters. But they don’t believe in themselves, or their own stated ideals, so how can they support a guy like Chuck, who makes them look so bad.
The only thing that establishment Republicans have going for them, at the moment, are negatives like a far left President, who is confrontational and anti-bipartisan, and who intentionally stirs the pot to maintain a high level of anger between the parties, and, in California, an incumbent Senator that is tainted by her adoration of Obama, who has raised the ire of conservatives.
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Now…. I understand reality. I understand numbers. Normally, if Fiorina wins the primary, I would probably hold my nose, and vote for Fiorina, in order to get rid of Boxer. In my life, I’ve voted dozens of times, and there are only a few times when I didn’t vote while holding my nose, so I could live with myself. No candidate is perfect.
But these are not “normal times”; these are angry times, and I will look long and hard at who I vote for this time; it will not be a slam-dunk party-line vote. I just don’t see why I should feel any allegiance to a Republican establishment that has abandoned it’s values, and which is clearly a failure.
It almost makes me ill to think about voting for a person like Fiorina. She is not the right person for this Senate seat, or for this country. We already have a slew of non-Republicans masquerading as conservatives, and we just don’t need another one, no matter how much money she has, and no matter how successful she was, or wasn’t, in her career.
It also makes me ill to think about voting for Boxer, too.
How about that….they both make me sick.
Maybe I should pull a Fiorina, and not vote for either one; and let her see how it feels to lose when voters are apathetic about their civic responsibilities.
The Republican Party, is now engaged in a suicide mission, and I think it may be in for a big shock, come June, and November. The popular anger has worked for them, so far, but, their continuous alienation of their base has reached the limit, and that same anger may be directed at them, from their former supporters. Their tactics may win seats in the November election, but, in the long run, it may be a death knell for many of them in 2012, and 2016.
Just as folks like Boxer, and Reid, and Pelosi are facing extinction, so might there be a slew of Republicans facing the same fate in a couple years.
Their love for Fiorina, and their rejection of Devore, is a grave mistake because it defines who they are, and that is not a pretty sight.
And that is just my opinion.
Spencer Holly
www.angrycalifornian.com
0109
Twitter: AngryCalifornia http://www.twitter.com/angrycalifornia
FaceBook: AngryCalifornian http://bit.ly/AngryCalifornian
Trackback Link: http://angrycalifornian.com/establishment-republicans-are-afraid-of-guys-like-chuck-devore-2605
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OTHER RESOURCES
It is Not Chuck DeVore Who Must Drop Out. Carly Fiorina Must Go.
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/05/20/it-is-not-chuck-devore-who-must-drop-out-carly-fiorina-must-go/
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Chuck DeVore should drop out of the Senate race in California and endorse Carly Fiorina
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/05/17/chuck-devore-should-drop-out-of-the-senate-race-in-california-and-endorse-carly-fiorina/
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It is Not Chuck DeVore Who Must Drop Out.
Carly Fiorina Must Go. (A Response to Erick Erickson’s Call For Carly Fiorina to Drop Out of the CA-Sen GOP Primary)
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Anti-tax groups say Fiorina falsely implied their endorsement
http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_15129430
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Poll Finds Americans Pessimistic, Dissatisfied with Washington
(Incumbents Beware)
“Seven in ten Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Washington, including 22 percent who say they are “angry” about the situation. Just 15 percent overall approve of the job being done by Congress.
Opinions of both parties, meanwhile, are at or near historic lows: 55 percent of those surveyed hold unfavorable views of Republicans, and 54 percent hold unfavorable views of Democrats. ”
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20005953-503544.html
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